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How To Predict The Future

See on Scoop.itComplex Insight – Understanding our world

Good article on predicting trends and understanding when technologies bcome feasible for widespread adoption. William Hertling has kept a spreadsheet he uses to predict technology trends for almost 20 years. He uses simple metrics and estimates annual growth rates in performance  to give insight itno when technologies will beocme widely available to the crowd. He argues that once a given technology achieves a cost performance ratio that is accessible to the mass market – thats when certain innovations will almost inevitably occur. Using video streaming, AI and other examples to illustrate his methods – its a great read if you are intereted in exploring future technolgy trends or making bets on tech developments. Click on image or title to learn more.


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